| Table 5. Top 10 Counties With the Largest Projected Population Increases | |||
| County | Projected Increase 2000-2030 | Rate of Increase (%) | Metro Area |
| Wake | 706,254 | 112.5 | Raleigh-Cary |
| Mecklenburg | 622,284 | 89.5 | Charlotte |
| Guilford | 237,216 | 56.3 | Greensboro-High Point |
| Johnston | 146,284 | 119.9 | Raleigh-Cary |
| Union | 138,764 | 112.2 | Charlotte |
| Forsyth | 128,029 | 41.8 | Winston-Salem |
| Cabarrus | 115,577 | 88.2 | Charlotte |
| Durham | 105,259 | 47.1 | Durham |
| New Hanover | 103,904 | 64.8 | Wilmington |
| Iredell | 98,711 | 80.5 | Charlotte |
| Total | 2,402,282 | 81.9 | |
| Rest of NC | 1,995,836 | 39.0 | |
| Total NC | 4,398,110 | 54.6 | |
| Source: Calculated from US Census (2000) and NC State Demographer (2030). | |||
| Table 6. Projected Top 10 Fastest Growing Counties | ||
| County | Growth Rate (%) | Comment |
| Hoke | 123.4 | Suburban Fayetteville |
| Johnston | 119.9 | Suburban Raleigh |
| Wake | 112.5 | Raleigh |
| Union | 112.5 | Suburban Charlotte |
| Harnett | 90.4 | Suburban Fayetteville |
| Mecklenburg | 89.5 | Charlotte |
| Cabarrus | 88.2 | Suburban Charlotte |
| Iredell | 80.5 | Suburban Charlotte |
| Brunswick | 78.7 | Suburban Wilmington/Beach |
| Franklin | 75.0 | Suburban Raleigh |
| N.C. | 54.6 | |
| Source: Calculated from US Census (2000) and NC State Demographer (2030). | ||
The US Census has projected that North Carolina will become the 7th most populous state by 2030, with over 12.2 million residents. This move up from the current 11th place is expected to happen as the state passes Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, and Georgia in total population. If these projections are realized, the state's share of the national total will rise from 2.86% in 2000 to 3.36% in 2030 even as the national figure jumps by over 29%.
The NC state demographer has projected that North Carolina's population
will increase by 54.6% between 2000 and 2030. Eleven counties are expected to increase by 75 percent
or more
(Figure 21).They include Mecklenburg and three adjacent counties; Wake and
four other suburban counties; and two counties adjacent to New Hanover County.
Lesser
but still strong growth rates are projected for many other Piedmont counties,
in the mountains and in the Inner Coastal Plain. Slower growth is foreseen
for the northeastern part of the state and five counties, centering on Bertie,
are
expected to lose population.
Figure 22 shows that 8 Piedmont counties, which include the state’s largest metro areas, are each expected to add 100,000 or more people between 2000 and 2030. Wake is expected to add over 700 thousand (Table 5), making it the state’s most populous. Mecklenburg is projected to add 622 thousand. If these projections are realized, these two counties will each have populations in excess of 1.3 million by 2030, making them the only counties in the state with at least one million residents. Together these two areas will account for over 41 percent of the entire state's net increase between 2000 and 2030.
The projected growth rates in Table 6 contain a somewhat different list of counties. Hoke is the leader here, projected to grow by over 123 percent. It and the other nine fastest growing are either central or suburban to the Charlotte, Fayetteville, Raleigh or Wilmington metro areas.
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