 A view near Grandfather Mountain Hugh Morton's NC, © 2003 UNC Press |
Almost all the indications of the climate record of the recent past, and from modeling experiments of the future, indicate that the planet is going to get warmer in the next few decades. As the recent past indicates, North Carolina is likely to follow along in this general trend, but warmer conditions are not guaranteed for any particular spot or any particular time in the state. Further, it also seems that suggestions that North Carolina will become “like” Orlando, or even Miami, is very misleading. These Florida locations may have a cool season, but not the true winter that will continue to be a feature of North Carolina's climate. And the state will continue to have a climate with, usually, plenty of rainfall throughout the year, rather than the dry winters and wet summers characteristic of Florida. So, in general, the state will continue to have the distinct march of the seasons, albeit each season may perhaps be a little warmer that in the past. Rain at all seasons, as well as periods of drought and flood, will continue, although the amounts, magnitudes and frequency of them may change. In many ways it seems that the many small changes will be almost unnoticeable most of the time. But almost certainly they will have significant impacts on all aspects of our lives.
One impact that is already occurring is the rise in sea level along the coast, responding to the global warming trend. There are various estimates of the rates and amounts of rise in North Carolina, but perhaps it is best to say that people with land below 3.5 m (about 11.5 feet) above sea level should be concerned, those with land below 1.5 m (about 5 feet) should be very concerned indeed, about possible inundation in the coming decades. (See Figure 13.11 in the NC Atlas for a map of these areas). Add to this the effects of storm surges associated with hurricanes, and it seems almost certain that more and more of the coastline will be in trouble in the coming decades
Most of the other potential impacts of climate change in North Carolina will follow from local climate changes. This uncertainty in the track of the climate makes any assessment of possible impacts, and thus any future actions, difficult to determine. An example of this uncertainty was the tropical storm that surprised residents of eastern North Carolina by dumping up to 15 inches of rain on that area in October, 2005.
Concern has been expressed in a whole range of effects, statewide or local, of worry to particular people or to all citizens, and involving all aspects of the climate. Examples include concerns about change in: the length of the growing season, the amount of water available to feed water supply systems and to meet irrigation needs, the needs for energy for heating and cooling, the availability of snow for skiing, the frequency and intensity of air pollution episodes, and impacts on the natural flora and fauna of our state.
Not all of these impacts are necessarily bad in and of themselves, but the projected rapid rate of change of the climate is likely to provide stress and problems, and quite possibly also to provide new opportunities. It also raises questions about what actions citizens, should take. Many of these questions are of a political, and often contentious, nature. As yet, the United States as a whole, unlike many nations, has not begun to address these questions. However, the North Carolina General Assembly recently recognized these various concerns by passing an Act (Senate Bill 1134) which established a Commission to study the issues, and in particular to determine whether the state can and should establish strategies and goals for the reduction of the carbon dioxide emissions which contribute to global warming. North Carolina has now become one of the leading states in the nation in tackling this subject.
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